FOREX: June 2009

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

GBP/USD Pops And Drops On Mixed Data

It’s been a volatile session thus far for the Cable and it seems the currency pair is in for a high volume day. The GBP/USD started the session fresh by climbing from our 3rd tier uptrend line, eclipsing previous June highs after much better than expected home price data.

EUR/USD Climbs After Better Than Expected Unemployment Change

The EUR/USD is knocking on the door of our 3rd tier uptrend line after Germany’s unemployment change came in lower than analyst expectations. Despite today’s pop in the currency pair, the movement comes on declining volume, giving us little reason to believe the EUR/USD can push through our 3rd tier uptrend and downtrend lines today.

USD/JPY Outlook

EUR/USD: 95.91

Despite y'day's strg rebound fm 95.16, intra-day retreat due partly to cross unwinding in yen indicates temporary top has been made n sideways trading is seen until European opening

ANALYSIS FOR GBP/USD

Losses didn't manage to follow-through yesterday and this has pushed price higher towards the 1.6631-62 highs. Indeed, a test of the 1.6662-80 area does look likely.

Eero/US Dollar Outlook

EUR/USD: +1.4130+

Although euro extended its o/n gain in NY n rose to 1.4127, nr term o/bot condition shud prevent further strg gain abv last week's high at 1.4139 n a minor retracement may take place to 1.4075/80 b4 prospect of another upmove later.

USD Declined Against A Basket Of Major Currencies

On Monday the USD declined against a basket of major currencies on speculation that a U.S. report may show that the consumer confidence increase to a multi-month high today, which may boost the risk appetite and increase demand for higher-yielding currencies. The EUR/USD rose from 1.4053 at its opening to 1.4082 at its closing and gained in the early Tokyo trading hours 0.24 % further.

EUR Is Facing A Choice

EUR

OsMA trend indicator having marked the formation of topping bearish signal at the attainment of key resistance range levels and gives grounds

EURUSD Outlook

EURUSD did jump above resistance line at 1.4111, trend is positive now.

Bulls needs to keep candles above resistance, otherwise bears will enter into the market with a danger for bulls.

Euro Technical Analysis

EUR

Comment: Rallying slowly from retracement support and looking set to move a little higher again today.

Currency Technical Analysis Update

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

1,4104. EUR USD is in a range between 1,3990 and 1,4130. The volatility is low. ForexTrend 1H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration.

FX And Dow Jones Recommended Levels Update

Several words about the EUR/USD Future.

Resistance (daily close) : 1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give 1.4490, 1.4692 и 1.4884.

Currency Technical Perspective Update

EUR/USD Current price: 1.4117

Nikkei opened 1.1% up following U.S. stocks, and Euro break above 1.4100 triggering some stops in the way.

Gold Consolidates As Investors Await Global Data

Gold is following the consolidation of the Dollar and U.S. equities while ignoring the pop in crude. The precious metal seems range bound for the immediate-term as investors await the heavily-weighted economic data coming later in the week.

S And P Post Solid Gains Out Of The Gate

The S&P futures are performing nicely Monday morning as they attempt to create separation between price and our near-term downtrend lines. The S&P futures could have a little upward mobility today should they clear our 1st tier resistance.

Crude Rises After More Nigerian Militant Attacks

Crude futures are ignoring the negative report from the IEA regarding demand after Nigerian militants attacked and forced the closure of Shell production wells.

USD/JPY Continues To Drift Sideways

The USD/JPY continues to tease investors as it fails to follow through on its threats of a large pullback. We’ve seen rising volume to the upside followed by climbing volume to the downside, hence the relatively tight trading range.

GBP/USD Needs To Dislodge From Its Tight Range

The GBP/USD is knocking on the door of our 3rd tier downtrend line once again as it reaches an inflection point with our 3rd tier downtrend line. While the Cable is in the position to make a technical breakout today, the behavior of the GBP/USD’s correlations aren’t supportive of such a movement.

EUR/USD Bounces Back Above 1.40

The EUR/USD’s upswing on Friday fell short of 6/24 highs as we anticipated since volume wasn’t strong enough to create a more significant movement to the upside. The currency pair is propelling from our 2nd tier uptrend line on Monday after the EU reported a better than expected consumer sentiment and economic confidence numbers.

London Gold Market Update

Crude oil recovered to just below $70 per barrel, despite a cut in global oil-demand forecasts at the International Energy Agency.

Monday, June 29, 2009

China Officials Temper Growth Estimates

Asian equity markets have picked up from Friday, trading slightly firmer across the board on a mixed set of economic and corporate developments. Nikkei225 is off session highs but still up 0.4%

US Dollar Once Again Strong On Monday

Another week is starting with the dollar once again strong on Monday, mainly due to the fact that Chinese officials have announced yesterday that China is not thinking alternative currencies for now and they will stick to the dollar despite all the rumors and speculations of market participants that the country is looking for a way out.

Gold Core Precious Metals Update

Gold

Gold was trading in the mid $930s in Tokyo overnight but buying in Europe this morning took it over the $940 level. With increasing concerns regarding the sustainability of the fabled "green shoots" and whether the recent recovery in equity markets can be sustained, gold will continue to be well supported.

JPMorgan Bulls Appear In Options Land

JPM – JPMorgan Chase & Co. – Option traders carousing in the August contract on JPM today appear cautiously optimistic on the stock amid a 0.5% rise in the underlying to $34.33.

Post Fed Commodity Rush

Post Fed Commodity Rush. And the money kept rolling in from every side. Oil bulls hands reached out and they reached wide. Now you may feel it should have been an oil related cause. But that's not the point my friends. When the money keeps rolling in, you don't ask how.

EUR/USD Has Risen 60 Pips

EUR/USD has risen 60 pips in the last hour from 1.3995 to go above the 1.4050 level.

GBP Recovery Against The Greenback

The Sterling recovery against the Greenback from 1.6430 as reached 1.6549 as fresh intra-day high and the GBP/USD has posted daily gains in the European session after rising around 85 pips in the last hour.

USD/JPY Has Fallen 20 Pips

USD/JPY has been trading in a small range between 95.30 and 95.60 during the European session, testing several times the down support.

USD/CHF Falls To Test 1.0850 Support

After reaching levels above 1.0900 and rejecting by the 1.0912, intra-day high, USD/CHF has falling during the European session to trade close to 1.0850. Currently the pair is trading around 1.0855/65, 0.45% above today's opening price.

AUD/USD Has Risen To Break 0.8030 Resistance

After rebounding at 0.7984 (coming from its 95 pips decline from 0.8080), the AUD/USD has risen to break 0.8030 resistance and to post levels above 0.8050, recovering almost all its initial losses. Currently the pair is trading around 0.80/50/60, 0.15% below 0.8069, today's opening price.

Oil Prices Still Failing To Stay Above $70

No matter how much downward pressure there appears to be on the value of the US Dollar, the price of Crude Oil still seems to have difficulty finding support above $70 a barrel.

Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

The pair has been range-trading for the past few days, and is now traded around the 1.4030 level.

Currently, the Bollinger Bands on the 1 hour chart are tightening

Yen Declining As Consumer Spending Expected To Fall

Despite the grueling downward trend the JPY experienced last week against its currency counterparts, the Yen now appears to be flattening out.

EUR's Mixed Results Due To High Optimism, Bleak Data

The EUR has been uncertain in its direction lately, despite clear calls for a buy-up of this higher-yielding currency during times of mild economic optimism.

USD Rises On Reserve Currency Debate

The US Dollar, after dropping last week due to renewed calls from China and Russia to switch to an alternate reserve currency, began to steadily strengthen in today's early morning hours. From a peak high above 1.4100 against the EUR, the USD has pared some of these losses and is currently trading just above 1.4000.

US Market Update | Week Close With No Definitions

Nikkei rose in Asia, closing 0.8% up, and Euro seize the opportunity to slowly regain the upside against dollar and yen, despite the general outlook for the hegemonic currency remains shady.

Anyway rising stocks and oil prices supported a bearish dollar as growing demand for derivates mirrors improvement in the global economy, and such wakes appetite for riskier assets.

USD Declined Against EUR As Asian Stocks Gained

The greenback declined against the Euro, as Asian stocks gained for a third day and traders added to bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low.

Euro & Pound Locked In Downside Consolidation

Thursday’s trading can best be described as ‘scrappy’. There was no dominant theme for traders to cling to so they were cautious and reverted to type, following equity markets moves as a signal for risk appetite and as a barometer for the Dollar.

London Session Update

The rise of risk appetite evident during Asians hours last night was maintained, albeit in a more half-heartened manner during the London session. European stock indices are trading modestly higher and while EUR/USD is still holding above last night's NY close

Crude Oil Reaches $70 A Barrel

Oil prices rose sharply to above $70 a barrel yesterday on renewed rebel attacks against Oil facilities in Nigeria, and worries that a glitch at the largest U.S. Oil refinery could tighten gasoline stockpiles during this summer's driving season. Crude Oil also got a lift from a rally on Wall Street fueled by optimism that the recession was easing, a prospect that could spell a recovery in ailing world energy demand.

Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

The bullishness of the EUR/USD pair seems to have be running out of steam, despite recently hitting the 1.4040 level. The hourly chart's RSI signals that the pair is in overbought territory, and that a bearish reversal is imminent. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

Yen Experiences Mixed Result Against The Major Currencies

The Yen completed yesterday's trading with mixed results versus the major currencies, on bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Banks' (ECB) efforts to stabilize the global economy will spur demand for higher-yielding assets.

The JPY closed at 96.08 per USD from 96.20 yesterday.

Euro Soars Against The USD

The 16 nation currency completed yesterday's trading session higher versus most major currencies.

The EUR closed higher versus the JPY yesterday, and the pair closed at around the 134.70 level. The EUR also saw bullishness against the GBP as it jumped around 60 pips and closed at 0.8547.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

USD Slides On Poor Unemployment Claims Figures

The U.S Dollar fell against most of its major currencies pairs yesterday. It was dragged lower by an unexpected rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims that dimmed the economic picture in the U.S. The USD was also pushed lower by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony, as he was put on the defensive due to recent controversial U.S. bank acquisitions.

USD Has Weakened On The Announcement

The Fed yesterday announced extension and modification to a number of its liquidity programmes, see Fed press release. In light of the improvement in financial conditions, the Fed will trim the size and terms of some facilities.

Friday, June 26, 2009

GBP Fell Sharply Against USD During European Trading

The British pound fell sharply against the US dollar during European trading, but made some headway in the US trading session thanks to a broad revival in risk appetite.

EUR Rallied For A Test Of 1.4010 Against USD

The euro rallied for a test of 1.4010 against the US dollar today, and while the currency ended the day up against most of the majors, there are longer-term downside risks to consider.

USD And JPY Fell This Afternoon

The US dollar and Japanese yen fell this afternoon as risk appetite picked up on reports that the Federal Reserve has decided to scale back some of their liquidity programs, suggesting that conditions have improved.

EUR/USD Technical Report

Euro moved sideways for the most of the day yesterday between 1,3900 and 1,4000. Later an upward reaction was formed and resistance at 1,3970-80 was breached and turned into a support.

Gold Technical Outlook

Gold's rebound extends further today and break of 944.6 resistance suggests that fall from 992.1 has completed at 913.2, after meeting 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9, on bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD.

Forex Thoughts For The Day

Dollar-Swiss has come off since the morning. The overall trend seems to be "ranged between 1.10-06". Within that, there is a crucial Support at 1.0835.

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