Tuesday, January 13, 2009

U.S. Trade Deficit Falls to $40.4 BLN

The United States Commerce Department reported today that the U.S. Trade deficit fell to $40.4 bln in November, the lowest level in five years, from $57 bln in October. The report showed a record fall in the amount of imports from China and a remarkable fall in the demand for oil.

The U.S. dollar extended gains against the euro after the government report was announced. However, the trade report for November is backward looking reflecting information that has been already discounted by the market. Moreover, one of the reasons why the trade deficit shrink so much was the rapid rise of the U.S. dollar during the month of October and November.


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EU Parliament Marks Euro's 10th Birthday

The global crisis also has increased the allure of the currency to several countries in Europe that have never adopted it.
European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet said the downturn and banking crisis has demonstrated the benefits of the euro, which was launched on Jan. 1, 1999.
"If we had not had a common currency, then we would not have been able to act as quickly and as effectively," Trichet told the European Parliament. "In turbulent times, it is better to be in a large and steady ship than on a little vessel."

Joaquin Almunia, the EU's economic and monetary affairs commissioner, said the euro now had the "deserved reputation for strength and stability" that helped provide safe shelter for euro-zone countries in wake of the recession.
Almunia credited the euro with the creation of some 60 million new jobs over the last decade by making trade and travel easier through the EU's single market. The euro also has led to more foreign investment.

With the inclusion of Slovakia, which became the 16th euro-zone member earlier this month, the euro is now used by 330 million people with a gross domestic product of more than 4 euros trillion ($5.4 trillion).
Euro countries now enjoy a bigger and more efficient bond market with less risk of currency devaluations and inflation.
However, Trichet listed several challenges which the euro-zone economy had to get through to turn around the economy. He pushed EU governments to back reforms of international financial institutions and regulations and to ensure they keep budget spending in check.

The ECB chief was joined by top EU officials and leaders to commemorate the anniversary at the EU assembly.
Lawmakers at the European Parliament were the first in the EU to promote a single Europe-wide currency in the 1960s.
The road to the launch was long, with European countries hesitant to trade in their national currencies for an untested one.

French and German leadership combined to propel 11 member states to launch the euro on financial markets on Jan. 1, 1999.
Euro bank notes and coins were rolled out two years later, and five other EU states have since signed up to the currency, which now stands as the second most influential world currency, after the U.S. dollar.

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13th January Forex Breakout Signals

USD/JPY - 20 pip trail
Sell @88.96 SL89.32 TP88.50

EUR/JPY - 25 pip trail
Sell @ 118.43 SL119.23 TP117.55

GBP/JPY - 40 pip trail
Sell @ 131.04 SL132.22 TP129.59

GBP/CHF - 40 pip trail
Buy @ 1.6670 SL1.6507 TP1.6776

*Trailing stops are a suggestion only, for those with smaller accounts (less than $1000 on a standard account)

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Monday, January 12, 2009

Euro down against US dollar

Euro falls against US dollar in early European trading

The 16-nation euro slipped against the U.S. dollar Monday as traders shrugged off unemployment figures from Washington and looked ahead to this week's ECB decision on interest rates.
The euro bought $1.3406 in midday European trading, down from $1.3646 on Friday. The British pound fell to 1.4970 from $1.5180 on Friday.

Washington reported Friday that the U.S. unemployment rate had jumped to 7.2 percent, the highest in 16 years. The U.S. lost 524,000 jobs in December, bringing the total job loss for last year to 2.6 million, the largest since World War II.
But the losses were in line with what traders had predicted, said James Hughes, a market analyst at CMC markets.

"Friday's non-farm payrolls, although disappointing, fell squarely in line with expectations, whilst the prospect of the ECB meeting later this week is also heaping downside pressure on the common currency," he said.
The ECB is widely expected to reduce interest rates when it meets on Thursday. Lower rates can help bolster an economy, but weaken a currency as traders transfer funds to investments with greater returns.

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1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
2. Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. ForexGen offers a free trial Forex [demo account] that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.

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We keep contact with our clients to ensure that we are on the right track. Leading our client relationship to success is our focus.
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Short-Term Forex Technical Outlook: EUR/USD

The euro is likely to face increased selling pressures throughout the week as the European Central Bank is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 50bp to 2.00%.

Currency Pair: EUR/USD


Chart: 60 Min Charts


Short-Term Bias: Bearish


Analysis


The euro is likely to face increased selling pressures throughout the week as the European Central Bank is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 50bp to 2.00%. After dipping to a low of 1.2329 on 10/28, the pair bounced back to reach a high of 1.4720 on 12/18, but the lack of momentum to end the day higher indicates that investors are bearish against the pair.

We may see the EURUSD continue to work its way lower over the week, but the oversold RSI signal paired with the divergence from the 120 SMA suggests that the pair may pull back towards 1.3500 before working its way to the downside.

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Interested clients who wish to participate in this event shall send an e-mail request on demo.contest@forexgen.com including the following information:
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The contest starts on the first Sunday of each month at 10 pm GMT and ends on the last Friday of that month at 10 pm GMT.

China Eastern: Fuel Hedging Loss $900 Million

China Eastern Airlines, one of the country's largest carriers, said it faces a "significant loss" for 2008 after fuel price hedges turned bad to the tune of 6.2 billion yuan ($906 million).

The costs associated with the wrong way bets on jet fuel prices will be somewhat offset by lower fuel costs, the airline said in a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange late Sunday. Crude oil prices plunged from about $147 a barrel in July to about $45 a barrel at the end of last year.
State-run China Eastern's actual cash loss from fuel hedging was $14.15 million as of the end of last month, it said.

"The civil aviation industry is facing an industrywide crisis. In addition, the fourth quarter is the traditional offseason for the aviation industry. It is anticipated that the Company will suffer significant operating losses in 2008," it said.
The carrier, based in Shanghai, reported fuel hedging losses of 1.8 billion yuan in October. The latest figures are about double analysts' estimates, the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post reported.

Many airlines have been caught out by the reversal in oil prices in the second half of last year.
Hong Kong-based carrier Cathay Pacific Airways reported last week that it could lose nearly $1 billion from hedging its jet fuel costs. Air China earlier reported potential hedging losses of 3.1 billion yuan.

Financially troubled China Eastern reported an overall net loss of about 2.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2008. It carried 5.4 percent fewer passengers in 2008 than in the year before.
The government is injecting 7 billion yuan into the carrier, and billions more into other carriers, to help tide them through the crisis.

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Advantages of No Dealing Desk Option

*Trade the news without intervention or restrictions
*Although spreads may vary in volatile market conditions, they are tried to be kept within the usually limits.

*Place scalping orders without intervention or restrictions.
*A client-friendly trading environment, No re-quotes.

*Ability to place orders inside the spread

*Competing rates from multiple banks

*Spreads are variable and can move sharply

*Ideal for active or professional FX traders


For more information about our current and future promotions, kindly visit this page often or contact one of our customers support agents at promotions@forexgen.com, or you can [chat] with our representatives, you can also[request a call back]from one of our agents by sending us your contact number and the best time we can reach you.

US Dollar Positions For Gains against the British Pound

The British Pound has added 3.61% against the US Dollar to date this month, but technical positioning suggests the upswing may be running out of stem. GBPUSD traded up to resistance at a downward-sloping trend line connecting major swing highs since late October and put in a bearish Star candlestick, hinting at the possibility of a forming top.

Near-term resistance is seen at 1.5096, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 10/20/08 - 12/31/08 decline. A daily close below this level conservatively targets 1.4650, the double bottom tested in mid-November and early December. A more ambitious target is 1.4350 at the most recent swing low.


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Euro / US Dollar Testing Key Support, Break Offers Sell Entry

Writing in our weekly technical outlook report, we noted that the Euro was likely to see near-term gains against the US Dollar to re-test support-turned-resistance at the bottom of the range from late December in the 1.3823-1.3910 area.

Indeed, the pair saw near-term upside but ran out of stem on a test of 1.38 and dropped back to a key multiple support/resistance level above 1.34. A daily close below this level clears the way for a selling opportunity targeting 1.3075, the range top that contained the pairs from 10/22/08 - 11/10/08.

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Sunday, January 11, 2009

Simple Winning Method Introduction

I first started trading when I was 15. I was fond of the stockmarket, but due to my limited capital I could only buy one share. When I eventually choose the stock I wanted, It didn’t go up or down. It just kept bouncing around. In the end, I sold the stock with a 5% loss.

I was still following the stockmarket, but I decided for myself I needed something more volatile with more leverage. I discovered options, futures an CfD’s. But they still were to unpredictable.
Eventually, I found my holy grail: Forex. I read all what I could read about it and made some first profits.

I discovered the power of something as simple as the BGX system or Vegas.
I started studying these methods more closely and realized that these simple models could make you very profitable in the long run.

Over time, I started to adapt the systems with my own rules. The biggest advantage of the Sidus Method is that it is not necessary for adding extra filters. Whipsaws will occur, but less frequent. This system made my trading very profitable as it easy to understand, easy to implement and easy to find the right entry-points.

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[ForexGen] provides appropriate services satisfying the needs of all business partner's specified situation and requirements.

Strategy + Discipline = More Pips

This Strategy try to teach you that you don’t have to take a pill in order to be a great trader. You just need to focus on some simple tools.

What Is a PIP ?
You know what a pip is already. For purposes of this article,
we’re drawing it as a yellow cube. Do you know that most forex traders spend their careers chasing after pips.

Have you ever watched the market and wondered why the harder you tried, the more quickly the pips distanced themselves from you? I remember when I first started trading that the market would move away from me and I would begin to think: it’s moving.

Why is it moving away from me? Couldn’t it just as easily move in my direction? For a while, I made money on gut decisions. I’d make some progress, a few pips or more a day, but never really understand the signals. For instance, I’d make a profit just barely, and watch in horror /relief as the market swung the opposite way right after I exited the trade. Or I’d enter a trade, lose a bunch of pips, and then exit the position at a loss – only to watch the market swing back in my favor.

Only, of course, the position was closed and all I could do was sit there and watch.

Until you’re no longer impressed with pips – no longer frightened by them, nor infatuated by them, not in love with them, no longer simply hating them – they won’t give you the time of day. The acquisition of pips is your only goal in the currency market.

But pips are fickle and if you pursue them full of emotion, you’re going to get burned. You must be able to calmly make a plan, stick to it. But I could do none of those things.

My emotions took hold of me and turned me into an idiot.

It’s the same for pips. We all want them. We all want as many of them as we can get. But some of us are willing to risk everything for just a few of them. We’ll chase after them like a 12-year old boy. And you know what? They don’t give a damn about you and me.

This strategy will present a plan for learning about pips, where they’re going, what they’re about to do, and then arm you with a strategy that once implemented, can take a lot of the emotion out of trading.

Your goal will be to:
1. Enter positions as soon as a particular signal is given.
2. Exit the position as soon as a particular signal is given.


The payoff will be:
1. The emotion should be gone from the trading. You will enter and exit trades with discipline and focus.

2. You’ll get about 20 pips on the good trades. There will be many more good trades than bad ones.

Attitude is 99% of Trading
Developing the right attitude about your trading is most of the work. Once you get your attitude (your discipline) under control, you’re going to have more pips than you know what to do with.

So much has been written about this that you’d think that you’ve already heard enough about it. I’ve written about it elsewhere, too1, but I’ve got to stress that no technique or strategy is worth more than the discipline you have to implement it.

The 5/13/62 strategy requires discipline. This is the most powerful personal characteristic you can acquire. Period. It will earn you more money and success than any other attitude or personality trait. If you’re low on discipline, please take the time to consider what I’m saying:

In trading, discipline simply means two things:
1. Enter a position as soon as a particular signal is given.

2. Exit the position as soon as a particular signal is given.

If you do not acquire discipline, this system will not work for you. No trading system will work for you. But this isn’t a book about discipline. In fact, this book assumes that you have discipline, or you’re willing to acquire in order to implement a profitable trading system.

So, for the purpose of this discussion, and for the testing of this strategy, please be disciplined – even as you practice.

[Why ForexGen]

1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
2. Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. ForexGen offers a free trial Forex [demo account] that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.

We consider every client as a special case, a VIP and a partner. A client's profit is our success and a client's loss is a significant call of action for us. Customer care is the heart of our business, we know every client on personal bases as we provide 24/7 customer support.
We keep contact with our clients to ensure that we are on the right track. Leading our client relationship to success is our focus.
Let [ForexGen] prove to you that you have taken the right step by choosing our partnership.

What is the best Strategy?

The best Forex Strategy is one of the things you are searching for
in internet if you are a trader, right ?Have you found the best one
that can make you rich and produce a lot of money ? I don't think so,
WHY ? The reason is simple; there is no best strategy all over the
internet. One strategy might be working for you but can not work for me .

There are a lot of Free Forex Strategy that you can find and they can
work for you as long as they are "suitable" for your attitude,discipline
and emotions.

Lets take examples ; Simple Strategy ( consistig of 3 indicators) and
Complex Strategy( consistingt.of 8 indicators)

A simple one is the one that takes only a few second to decide or to
read the signal, and a complex one is the strategy that need you to
compare one indicators with other indicators and takes time to decide.

If you are kind of trader that can not sit in front of your desktop
for a long time,why you should you use a complex one ? You'd better
choose a simple strategy;quick and straight forward. And on the other
hand, if you are a trader that can observe your monitor all the
time you'd better choose a complex one.

I have used a lot of Forex Strategies; free and paid ones but only
few of them suits me. I really know that most of them work as
publishers advertised but not to all traders.

Six month ago I purchased one strategy and many traders said in
various forum that they can make money from the strategy but one
I used in demo platform I feel that I was just like studying
mathematics at High Scool, because I had to compare and look at
many indicators that used by the strategy. I could not do it and
Iam too old to do that like a school boys. But the funny things is
that I can still see my name in their testimonial.He...he...he...
And I know that the strategy is good but If I continue using it
with the real money I will loose. I could not follow that type.

As a guideline to you; you can try as many strategies as possible
but in demo version, and observe it whether you can relax using
the strategy or just a handicap for your trading.

You should learn how to choose and fit to your attitude. I believe
you will get the best one but for you.

[ForexGen Demo Accounts Contest]

Win Cash Prizes

[ForexGen] has the pleasure to announce the launching of the Demo Account contest on the first of every month.

Interested clients who wish to participate in this event shall send an e-mail request on demo.contest@forexgen.com including the following information:
- Full name: - Phone number

Also provide us with the following identification document:

" Certified copy of the information pages of account holder current valid passport or government issued photo ID"

After we receive your request we will provide you with further details and with your [demo account] login information which will be used in the trading contest.

By the end of each contest:

1. All participants that manages to open at least 20 lots will be awarded a Live Account with $50 credit
2. All participants that manages to open at least 20 lots and keep their demo account initial balance will be awarded a Live Account with $100 credit

3. The highest 5 accounts with the highest profits (including the floating P/L) will be awarded a Live Account with $250 credit.


The contest starts on the first Sunday of each month at 10 pm GMT and ends on the last Friday of that month at 10 pm GMT.

A look at Australian Dollar

What moves it?
The Australian Dollar is a "Commodity Currency" like the Canadian Dollar. Its fortunes are heavily dependent on the prices of Gold, Copper, Nickel, Coal and Wool. Movements in the Australian Dollar (Aussie) are also dependent on movements in the Japanese Yen, with the two currencies tending to move in tandem. Generally, a stronger Yen has implied a stronger Aussie and a weaker Yen has been followed by a weaker Aussie.
The Movement
After hitting a bottom near 0.5650 in August last year, the Aussie rallied to 0.6750 in May this year, based on a modest pickup in Commodity prices. But, lately, with Commodities falling again the Aussie has been impacted negatively. The most worrying factor for Aussie is the price of Gold which is trading at $ 265.50 an ounce, the lowest level it has seen in 20 years. As long as the sentiment for Gold is bearish, the Australian Dollar is expected to be weak.

Technical Analysis
The current downmove to 0.6450 can be viewed as a normal retracement back to trendline channel support area at 0.64, as seen in the graph above. Also, we can reason that the movement down from 0.6750 was to be expected as the 0.6750 level was the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the BIG move down from 0.80 to 0.5650. As long as the currency is able to find a bottom at 0.6300, there is a good chance of it strengthening to 0.70 over the next 2-3 months. A fall below 0.6300 ought to see a further fall to 0.60, however.
Inflation and US Dollar
The Australian Dollar will really benefit if the price of Gold picks up. And the price of Gold could well pick up if the fears of Inflation in the USA suddenly intensify. There are, of course, factors such as the rising Bond Yields, the fearful Dow Jones and slow movement out of assets in cash holdings would imply that the strength of the US Dollar could be called into question, at least temporarily. We also need to be mindful that the Forex market is again thinking that the Yen could strengthen to 117.50.

Apart from Inflation, the factor that could support the Australian Dollar is the possibility that with a recovery in Asia, which the USA is not averse to, commodity prices may find a base, if not positively strengthen.

Idea
Buying the Australian Dollar near 0.6300 might be a low risk trade. As the Australian and US Interest Rates are almost identical (6 months Libor being close to 5.18% p.a. in both), there is no "cost of carry" involved in trading the Aussie against the US Dollar. Remember, however, that we need to keep an eye on movements in Gold to able to trade this currency properly.

[ForexGen Scalping Enabled Account]

Trade and scalp the market ForexGen has the pleasure to announce the availability of both Dealing Desk and No Dealing Desk Platforms. No Dealing option provide traders with direct access to the best bid/ask prices through multiple bank access. No re-quotes & No dealer confirmation is the main characteristic of the no dealing option made specifically for “scalpers” and active FX professionals. Absolute freedom to trade during news and economic events. The no dealing desk option allows traders to place entry orders inside the spread! Unlike competing FX firms, [ForexGen] offers traders all the advantage of a “no dealing desk” option.

Advantages of No Dealing Desk Option

*Trade the news without intervention or restrictions
*Although spreads may vary in volatile market conditions, they are tried to be kept within the usually limits.

*Place scalping orders without intervention or restrictions.
*A client-friendly trading environment, No re-quotes.

*Ability to place orders inside the spread

*Competing rates from multiple banks

*Spreads are variable and can move sharply

*Ideal for active or professional FX traders


For more information about our current and future promotions, kindly visit this page often or contact one of our customers support agents at promotions@forexgen.com, or you can [chat] with our representatives, you can also[request a call back]from one of our agents by sending us your contact number and the best time we can reach you.

Currency Market Forecast


Further Aussie Dollar (AUD) Unwinding Ahead due to softer Inflation


This week's softer than expected consumer inflation figures from Australia have eroded chances of a February rate hike and may have finally concluded the 4 ½ year old tightening cycle adopted by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which lifted interest rates from 4.25% to 6.25%. The headline CPI slowed to 3.3% in y/y in Q4 from 3.9% in Q3, undershooting expectations of a 3.6% reading. Although the core CPI (excluding volatile items) edged up to 2.7% from 2.6%, the seasonally adjusted weighted median CPI slipped to 3.0% from 3.2%. Markets were especially caught off guard by the 0.1% decline q/q, which was the first decrease in 8 years. The soft CPI report was clearly a result of falling energy and commodity prices, which triggered a 12.4% drop in gasoline costs and a 5.2% in fruit prices. But the report was instrumental in dampening probabilities of a February rate hike from as much as 80% to less than 15%.

But it's not all about slowing inflation. The severe draught has weighed on the economy, causing Q3 GDP growth to slow to 0.3% q/q, its lowest rate since Q2 2003. Retail sales have also slowed while rising interest rates may once again start to burden consumers amid the general cooling. The important role of slowing inflation on monetary policy is that it serves as the main counterpoint to tightening labor markets, which have been strengthened by a 4.6% unemployment rate, the lowest in 30 years. Albeit volatile, Australia's job figures continue to show a strong participation rate of 64.9%. But with inflation cooling, GDP growth struggling below 1.0% and interest rates at their highest in 8 years, the case for further monetary tightening weakens by the day.

The combination of weakening energy prices and a sharp reversal in expectations from a February rate hike earlier this week to no hike after Wednesday's CPI figures has triggered an all round assault on the Australian dollar, resurrecting calls for unwinding in FX carry trades. The unwinding was short-lived in the yen crosses due to remaining uncertainty over the Japanese interest rates.

While the aforementioned analysis suggests further declines in the Australian dollar, the following charts present the case for further downfall. Here are a few cases:

AUDEUR WEEKLY
The AUDEUR cross rate suggests further downside potential considering heightened certainty for at least 25 bps of tightening from the European Central Bank this quarter as communicated via the officials' consistently hawkish rhetoric. With consumer demand and business confidence continuing to show signs of strength, the growth arguments for further rate hikes are added to the inflation arguments. The aforementioned prospects for Australian monetary policy suggest further downside, with 59.40 and 59.00 as the next targets from the current 59.75.

AUDUSD DAILY
Although the pair has plunged by 2 cents in two days, breaking the major 77.60 support (formerly a major resistance) to 77.3, we expect prolonged selling towards the 77.00 as an initial target. Next week's FOMC meeting is expected to produce a relatively optimistic statement, which could make the Aussie one of the primary casualties of a USD rally. The only major risk to this forecast is a sharp run up in oil prices --over $2.00 per day -- which could elevate the pair towards the 77.60 resistance.

AUDCHF WEEKLY
As the Swiss National Bank continues expressing concern over franc weakness, a March rate hike remains firmly cemented in the works. In the event that evidence of a slowing Australian economy persists, markets may even begin pricing a rate cut later in the year, which could trigger sharp bouts of unwinding in the AUDCHF carry trade. The hefty yield differential of 4.25% in favor of the AUD is the reason why the chart below has yet to show further downside. With both the MACD line and signal lines above zero, there're appears a strong likelihood for prolonged selling to call up the 96 centimes 95.45 centimes levels from the current 96.50. Upside capped at 97.20.
GOLDAUD WEEKLY
Charting gold against the Aussie highlights the ensuing broad weakness in the Australian dollar, as the weekly chart has not shown significant decline since last September. Gold's resilience against the high yielding currency, and its approach towards the 8-month trend line resistance increases chances of a breach past A$ 839 and onto the A$863 target.


ForexGen offers three types of business partnerships:

*Introducing Broker
*White label
*Money Manager

ForexGen Introducing Brokers, White Label and Money Manager holders are recognized as a strategic business partners. The main focus of our service is to satisfy our partner's needs in order to deal with a qualified service and gain a huge income sharing plan.

[ForexGen] provide appropriate services satisfying the needs of all business partner's specified situation and requirements.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

US Dollar Slips as Consumer Credit Falls By Record, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) Expected to Fall By 500K or More

- Euro Ends Day Just Below Key Resistance
- Will Euro-zone Retail Sales Weigh on Friday?

- British Pound Surges Following Bank of England's Rate Cut - Why?

- Canadian Dollar Could Pull Back on Friday


US Dollar Slips as Consumer Credit Falls By Record, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) Expected to Fall By 500K or More

The US dollar fell versus most of the major currencies on Thursday, save the Australian dollar, as consumer credit fell by the most in at least 65-years and continuing jobless claims reached a new 26-year high. According to the Federal Reserve, consumer credit in the US fell for the second consecutive month by a record $7.9 billion in November.

More specifically, non-revolving debt, such as auto or student loans, tumbled by $5.2 billion and revolving debt, such as credit cards, declined by $2.8 billion. Overall, this highlights a shift in attitude amongst Americans away from the feeling that they could spend freely on designer goods with the help of credit cards toward a far more risk averse sentiment in which consumers opt to pay down debt and spend conservatively. Ultimately, this will be a negative for high-end retailers and stores that do not have the ability to offer deep discounts, as they essentially performed well only when consumers had no inclination to save.

Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims fell by 24,000 during the week ending January 3 to 467,000, but as we mentioned last week, employment reports for the last two weeks of 2008 should be ignored as the closure of government offices on the holidays, such as New Year's Day, skew the numbers. However, this makes the results of the count of continuing jobless claims even worse, as they rose by 101,000 to a fresh 26-year high of 4.611 million during the week ending December 27 despite the fact that fewer people would be able to file claims. This does not bode well for tomorrow's releases at 8:30 ET, as US non-farm payrolls (NFP’s) are forecasted to fall for the twelfth straight month in December at a rate of -520,000.

Something that is garnering even more attention though is the rise in the unemployment rate, which is predicted to match the June 1993 high of 7.0 percent from 6.7 percent. Results in line with or worse than expectations would suggest that consumption, and growth in general, will continue to wane throughout 2009, and could weigh on the greenback.

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US Dollar: US Expected To Lose More Than 1 Million Jobs In Just Two Months

The weight of recession is a reality that many of the world’s largest economies are already living with; but for the currency market, relative health is of greater fundamental significance than any absolute measures of economic health. This is the frame of mind we should be in when approaching the prospect of another five hundred thousand-plus jobs cut from American payrolls last month when speculating the impact the well-known market-moving Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report could have of the US dollar.

And, with the greenback struggling to regain its footing against the euro, British pound and Japanese yen; a hit to growth forecasts of this magnitude could certainly redefine the currency’s long-term trend.
What is the Market Expecting for October Non-Farm Payrolls?

Taking a quick look at the official forecast from Bloomberg’s survey of economists, we can see that reports of generational lows in consumer confidence and sharp declines in consumption trends have been interpreted as evidence of another massive cut in employment through the end of 2008. The consensus is calling for an additional 523,000 jobs to be shed last month – a mere 10,000 fewer than the preliminary report for the previous period.

Picking the consensus apart, we further see that of the 72 estimates, the high water market was a dismal 350,000 cut; while the boldest prediction called for a loss of 750,000 jobs. Clearly this shows that regardless of the exact number of the net decline; the market does not doubt that the economy is in for a sizable jump in unemployment for the period.

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Dollar continues posting losses

The dollar weakened against major currencies Thursday as the pound got a lift from the Bank of England's rate cut and investors considered bleak economic news from Europe. The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 1.5% Thursday, the lowest rate in the bank's 315-year history.

When a central bank lowers its rate, it tends to weaken its currency. However, sterling rebounded off the news because many investors were expecting a larger cut, up to three-quarters of a point, according to Tom Benfer, director of foreign exchange at BMO Capital Markets.

That surprise likely caused many speculators who had shorted the pound to buy it back to cover their positions, causing it to rise, Benfer said.
The British pound rose against the dollar 0.65% to $1.5197 from $1.5114 late Wednesday.
In announcing its cut, the Bank cited weakening consumer spending, a tightening credit market for households and businesses, and a deteriorating business and residential investment outlook.

The euro also made gains against the dollar despite consumer confidence in the European Union and euro zone falling to record lows.
The 15-nation euro was up 0.59% against the dollar, trading at $1.3726 from $1.3623 late Wednesday.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut its key interest rate at its meeting next week.
The greenback dropped 1.49% against the Japanese yen, purchasing ¥91.28 down from ¥92.59.

Benfer also said that the dollar weakened as investors started looking to Friday's report on job losses in December.
"People are just getting prepared for tomorrow's bad payroll number," he said.
Employers are expected to have cut 500,000 jobs from their payrolls in December after cutting 533,000 jobs in the previous month, according to Briefing.com forecasts.
The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 7% from 6.7% in the previous month.

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US Consumer Credit Fails to Support Economy

US Consumer Credit change for November contracted by $7.9B, in sharp contrast to the forecast for no change and previous month’s $2.8B drop. Consumer credit change reached a record contraction with sizeable declines in non-revolving credit and an increase in revolving credit.

The report is showing a preference for revolving credit, which suggests consumers are paying less on balances to maintain their previous standards of living – a dangerous prospect considering the level of default in the market. This is yet another sign that the economy is heading into a deeper recession.

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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Investing in Forex

Investing in foreign currencies is a relatively new avenue of investing. There are considerably fewer people are aware of this market than there are people aware of several other avenues of investing. Trading foreign currency, also known as forex, is the most lucrative investment market that exists. There are several factors that make this true among which, successful forex traders earn realistic profits of one hundred plus percent each month. Compared to some of the better known investment markets such as corporate stocks, this is an unheard of return on investment.

It's very necessary to mention here that a person who invests in forex must, without exception, make it a point to learn the detailed, but simple strategies and information surrounding the market. This very fact is what makes the difference between successful forex traders and other traders.

A few additional points, which create such powerful leverage for investors within the forex market are: The amount of capital required to begin investing in the market is only three hundred dollars. For the most part, any other investment market is going to demand thousands of dollars of the investor in the beginning. Also, the market offers opportunities to profit regardless what the direction of the market may be; In most commonly known markets investors sit and wait for the market to begin an up trend before entering a trade.

Even then, investors, as a rule must sit and wait some more to be able to exit the trade with a nice profit. Given that the forex market produces several up, down, and sideways trends in a single day, it can easily be seen that forex stands head and shoulders above other markets. Additionally there are trading strategies, which are taught that provide for compounded profits; these are profits on top of profits. In addition, free demo accounts are available within the industry of forex trading, which facilitate the sharpening of skills without the risk losing any capital. And the advantage regarding the time factor in trading foreign currency is a very attractive point for any investor.

Compared to one of the most sought after avenues of investing, which often requires forty or more hours each week, namely in the real-estate market, the forex market requires a much smaller demand on the investor's time. Forex trading requires approximately ten to fifteen hours each week to earn a full time income. It's easy to see that the advantages and great leverage that exist in the forex market, make it among the most lucrative, time liberating, and easy to enter by far.

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The 4 Key Players in the Forex Market

When trades are conducted in the equity market, they are normally conducted with institutional investors (e.g. mutual funds) or other individual investors. The Forex market operates differently in that there are additional players who trade for reasons that are different from that of the equity market. So for the purposes of educating the newcomers to the Forex market, the following is about the four key players in this arena.
Governments and Central Banks
Without a doubt, it could be strongly argued that the governments and central banks of the world's countries are the big players in the Forex market. Normally, the central bank is an extension of that country's government, and will usually formulate and regulate policy in conjunction of the government. There are governments that disagree with this, feeling that a centralized bank should be more of independent entity. The reasoning is that it could be more effective in the areas of curbing inflation rates and keeping interest rates down in the hopes of stimulating ongoing economic growth. But the government officials would still have the right to regular consulting privileges for the purpose of discussing monetary policy despite the banks independent platform.

Banks and Other Financial Institutions
Despite the depth of influence that governments and central banks exhibit, regular banks and other types of financial institutions are still a key factor in the Forex market in that they are available for those individuals who need to swap currencies in a small-scale type of transaction. So, they will deal with the neighborhood or local banks. However, these smaller scale transactions can't compare to the volume of the transactions that are conducted within the Forex market. Oftentimes referred to as the interbank market, this is the area wherein larger banks conduct transactions with other similar banks as well as determine the exchange rates that traders see on the trading platforms. Electronic brokering methods that are based on credit transactions are the means with which these trades are conducted. Only those banks that have an established credit based relationship with one another can be involved in this type of activity.

Hedgers
Businesses dealing in international transactions are usually the banks biggest clients. Whether a client is purchasing from or selling to an international client, the transaction will always be subject to the volatility factors that influence the exchange rate. And if there is one thing that management or shareholders despise, it is the uncertainty factor. Normally, these individuals will offset this uncertainty by entering the spot market and make an immediate transaction to purchase the currency that they need.

Speculators
Speculators are another market participant involved in the Forex market. Speculators usually will attempt to make monetary gains by taking advantage of fluctuations in the exchange rates rather than hedging against the rates or exchanging currencies to fund their transactions. Hedge funds are considered to be some of the largest speculators in the Forex market. They are also considered the most controversial. A good analogy that was once used to describe hedge funds was "mutual funds on steroids."

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