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Tuesday, January 13, 2009

EU Parliament Marks Euro's 10th Birthday

The global crisis also has increased the allure of the currency to several countries in Europe that have never adopted it.
European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet said the downturn and banking crisis has demonstrated the benefits of the euro, which was launched on Jan. 1, 1999.
"If we had not had a common currency, then we would not have been able to act as quickly and as effectively," Trichet told the European Parliament. "In turbulent times, it is better to be in a large and steady ship than on a little vessel."

Joaquin Almunia, the EU's economic and monetary affairs commissioner, said the euro now had the "deserved reputation for strength and stability" that helped provide safe shelter for euro-zone countries in wake of the recession.
Almunia credited the euro with the creation of some 60 million new jobs over the last decade by making trade and travel easier through the EU's single market. The euro also has led to more foreign investment.

With the inclusion of Slovakia, which became the 16th euro-zone member earlier this month, the euro is now used by 330 million people with a gross domestic product of more than 4 euros trillion ($5.4 trillion).
Euro countries now enjoy a bigger and more efficient bond market with less risk of currency devaluations and inflation.
However, Trichet listed several challenges which the euro-zone economy had to get through to turn around the economy. He pushed EU governments to back reforms of international financial institutions and regulations and to ensure they keep budget spending in check.

The ECB chief was joined by top EU officials and leaders to commemorate the anniversary at the EU assembly.
Lawmakers at the European Parliament were the first in the EU to promote a single Europe-wide currency in the 1960s.
The road to the launch was long, with European countries hesitant to trade in their national currencies for an untested one.

French and German leadership combined to propel 11 member states to launch the euro on financial markets on Jan. 1, 1999.
Euro bank notes and coins were rolled out two years later, and five other EU states have since signed up to the currency, which now stands as the second most influential world currency, after the U.S. dollar.

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Monday, January 12, 2009

Euro / US Dollar Testing Key Support, Break Offers Sell Entry

Writing in our weekly technical outlook report, we noted that the Euro was likely to see near-term gains against the US Dollar to re-test support-turned-resistance at the bottom of the range from late December in the 1.3823-1.3910 area.

Indeed, the pair saw near-term upside but ran out of stem on a test of 1.38 and dropped back to a key multiple support/resistance level above 1.34. A daily close below this level clears the way for a selling opportunity targeting 1.3075, the range top that contained the pairs from 10/22/08 - 11/10/08.

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Thursday, January 8, 2009

US Dollar Slips as Consumer Credit Falls By Record, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) Expected to Fall By 500K or More

- Euro Ends Day Just Below Key Resistance
- Will Euro-zone Retail Sales Weigh on Friday?
- British Pound Surges Following Bank of England's Rate Cut - Why?
- Canadian Dollar Could Pull Back on Friday

US Dollar Slips as Consumer Credit Falls By Record, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) Expected to Fall By 500K or More

The US dollar fell versus most of the major currencies on Thursday, save the Australian dollar, as consumer credit fell by the most in at least 65-years and continuing jobless claims reached a new 26-year high. According to the Federal Reserve, consumer credit in the US fell for the second consecutive month by a record $7.9 billion in November.

More specifically, non-revolving debt, such as auto or student loans, tumbled by $5.2 billion and revolving debt, such as credit cards, declined by $2.8 billion. Overall, this highlights a shift in attitude amongst Americans away from the feeling that they could spend freely on designer goods with the help of credit cards toward a far more risk averse sentiment in which consumers opt to pay down debt and spend conservatively. Ultimately, this will be a negative for high-end retailers and stores that do not have the ability to offer deep discounts, as they essentially performed well only when consumers had no inclination to save.

Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims fell by 24,000 during the week ending January 3 to 467,000, but as we mentioned last week, employment reports for the last two weeks of 2008 should be ignored as the closure of government offices on the holidays, such as New Year's Day, skew the numbers. However, this makes the results of the count of continuing jobless claims even worse, as they rose by 101,000 to a fresh 26-year high of 4.611 million during the week ending December 27 despite the fact that fewer people would be able to file claims. This does not bode well for tomorrow's releases at 8:30 ET, as US non-farm payrolls (NFP’s) are forecasted to fall for the twelfth straight month in December at a rate of -520,000.

Something that is garnering even more attention though is the rise in the unemployment rate, which is predicted to match the June 1993 high of 7.0 percent from 6.7 percent. Results in line with or worse than expectations would suggest that consumption, and growth in general, will continue to wane throughout 2009, and could weigh on the greenback.

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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Learn Forex Trading / Currency Trading Tips

The foreign exchange market or forex is the largest and most liquid markets in the world. Its growing popularity can be seen by the whooping $2 trillion trades a day. While the forex can be an extremely lucrative market, it can also be somewhat complicated. These ten tricks will help insure trading success in the foreign exchange market.

First, make sure you implement a trading plan. You should develop a foreign exchange trading system that you can stick with. Having a decent strategy is not enough you need a well-developed system to effectively implement your strategies. You should start by creating a schedule of when you will do your Forex trading. Next create on organized budget to keep track of the inflow and outflow of your money. It’s important to understand that Forex trading, like any business venture, will have its peaks and slumps. You should be prepared to stick to your system despite these fluctuations to maximize profits in the long run.

Second, make plans to trade within your means. Quite simply, if you cannot afford to lose, then you really cannot afford to win either. All traders hope that the will be profitable in their investments, but losing at some point is inevitable. For this reason it is important that you invest only money that you could stand to lose. Try setting aside some saving that you can dedicate just to trading.

Another helpful hint is to trade along side the majorities. This means trading mainly on the most common currency pairs. The most common currencies are the United States dollar, USD, the Japanese yen, JPY, the European Euro, EUR, the United Kingdom pound, GBP, the Australian dollar, AUD, the Swiss franc, CHF, and the Canadian dollar, CAD. The most common pairs of currency are referred to as majors and are GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD.

Another way to insure success is to avoid emotional trading. Stick to you trading strategy and do not deviate because of gut feelings or hunches. Learn to exit the market when signals indicate that the market is about to swing in an unfavorable direction.

Learning to trust the trends is another important trick. Although currencies will always fluctuate slightly, they generally move steadily in one direction. If you are not sure on where to position yourself in the forex, following a trend is usually a safe bet.

Next, you should anticipate small losses. Know matter how well you know the market or how long you have been a trader you will probably encounter small losses. You need to expect and accept these losses as small components of a larger plan. Be ready for these small losses and put them aside in anticipation of acquiring greater returns in the future. The key to long-term success in the Forex market is patience.

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Monday, January 5, 2009

Trying Forex Trading with the Best Strategy and Approach

Forex trading is regarded as the largest financial forum in the world with an estimated 3.1 trillion dollars of volume every day.

Forex trading is open 24 hours and never sleeps. Transactions are done all over the world via telephones and computers, money exchanges hand in the number of millions in just mere seconds.
Forex trading is composed of thousands of banks and individual Forex trading companies that monitor development all over the world, developments that may influence the value of their currency.
Forex trading deals with the exchange of currencies from different countries. The idea is to determine the rise and fall of the value of a certain currency and trade when it is deemed advisable.

For small Forex trading transactions, managed accounts are the ideal -- they are for the cautious because they have the least risky participation. Here you entrust your investments along with others to a reliable, honest and ethical seasoned Forex brokers. These Forex brokers use their extensive knowledge and experience and use their strategy to make your money grow, for a fee of course.

With the rise of the internet, Forex trading can be done in a click of the mouse. Money travels through space and wires all the time. The computers have done a big help in the growth of Forex trading, transactions can now be done anytime anywhere. Since somebody is up at a given time everyday anywhere in the world, you will never lose someone to trade with.
There are two basic and fundamental ways to analyze and evaluate foreign exchange trading. There is the technical analysis and the fundamental analysis. There is a huge difference between the two.

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Sunday, January 4, 2009

What You Absolutely Must Know...

There are two distinctions that will be made in this article. The first regards forex trading software that enables the retail forex trader to access data feeds and charts that show the current market action of major currency pairs and crosses in the forex markets.

The second regards forex trading software that either assists the trader in some way as an adjunct to their trading or claims to identify trading signals whereby the trader can enter the market using the software perhaps as a stand alone or in conjunction with their technical analysis charts.

The forex trading software that is probably most relevance to the forex trader, who participate in online forex currency trading through a forex broker, is that of a charting package which may well be provided by the broker. Many forex brokers, contrary to popular belief, provide excellent information for their clients, in order to help them.

In addition they will provide a kind of forex trading software, that incorporates a datafeed which transmits the latest market prices as given by the broker with a package that enables the trader to use charts of different timeframes, different currency pairs and a selection of technical analysis indicators, which can be used to create a technical training strategy.

A good charting package will be reliable 24 hours per day in providing up-to-date quotes and potting market action on a candlestick or bar graph. The amount of options will vary from broker to broker, from charting package to charting package.

Most will include the bid ask prices across a variety of pairs as well as the option to display one chart or multiple charts and to put on those charts indicators such as: moving averages; RSI; Fibonacci retracement levels and an ability to change the change the color scheme to the desired choice. Such a software made it to trader the opportunity to execute trades as well. Features such as one click order execution and closure are desirable. Speed of execution obviously is a major advantage for intraday trading.

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Thursday, January 1, 2009

For Whom is Technical Trading Appropriate?

The discussion of risk and returns suggests that technical analysis may be very useful for banks and large financial firms that can borrow and lend freely at the overnight interbank interest rate and buy and sell in the wholesale market for foreign exchange, where transactions sizes are in the millions of dollars.

Technical trading is much less useful for individuals, who would face much higher transactions costs and must consider the opportunity cost of the time necessary to become an expert on foreign exchange speculating and to keep up with the market on a daily basis. How large would transactions costs have to be to eliminate the excess return to the technical rules? If we assume a 6 percent annual excess return to the rule and 230 trades (10 trades a year), round-trip transactions costs would have to be greater than 0.6 percent to produce zero excess returns.

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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

The Cost of Buying Euros Continues to Rise

The Euro extended its rally against the dollar to another record high after poor jobs data and a repeat performance by the Feds Bernanke, who did little to offer any support to the dollar. The Euro gained a full 1 per cent against the greenback to hit an all time high of $1.5231. This is the third straight session in which the Euro has gained to record highs.

We have seen good data posted by Germany this morning as Retail Sales rose higher than expected in January. Retail sales rose 1.6% on the month. Be aware today, as its Friday under after the rise of the Euro, it may be under some pressure from the dollar and yen as a bit of profit taking may come into play before the weekend.
29 February 2008 10:17:36

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Monday, December 29, 2008

Euro Rises As Economy Shows Signs Of Stabilizing

Euro Rises As Economy Shows Signs Of Stabilizing, Pound Stumbles On Consumer Spending Outlook

The Euro rallied above 1.4250 on comments from German Finance minister Peer Steinbruek and French GDP showing growth in the third quarter.

Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Finds Support On Middle East Violence
• Pound: Falls On Weakening Consumer Spending Expectations
• Euro: Rises As Growth Outlook Improves
• US Dollar: Risk Winds To Determine Sentiment

Euro Rises As Economy Shows Signs Of Stabilizing, Pound Stumbles On Consumer Spending Outlook

The Euro rallied above 1.4250 on comments from German Finance minister Peer Steinbruek and French GDP showing growth in the third quarter. The German finance minister told the Hannover-based Neue Presse newspaper that Germany is situated to handle the current economic crisis and that the country has yet to decide on the size of the next stimulus package that is expected in January. Meanwhile, the final 3Q French GDP reading confirmed the preliminary print of 0.1% growth.

Signs that the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies are proving to be more resilient than expected, has lowered expectations that the ECB will resume its current easing policy. Falling oil prices and inflation led to an increase in French consumer spending which drove growth in the third quarter offsetting declining manufacturing activity. Indeed, the German Finance minister also cited the drop in prices as the source for his optimism as real disposable incomes rise. However, we saw Italian business confidence fall to a record low of 66.6, which continues the trend that we saw in Germany and France. If businesses continue to slash payrolls to reduce expenses, consumer spending may begin to weaken and weigh on domestic growth. Another test of the 200-Day SMA is a possibility, but until we see a break above this technical level the downside risks remain.

The Pound pared earlier gains dropping over 100 points, as the outlook for consumer spending took a significant blow. A Guardian/ICM poll said 86% of Britons will make spending cutbacks in 2009. Additionally, 43% of firms polled by the British Chamber of Commerce plan to freeze wages and salaries in 2009, which has lowered expectations for domestic growth. The declining housing market has also added to the decline in wealth, which led to Britons putting in £5.7 Billion into their homes according to the BoE housing equity withdrawal report. It was the most since records began in 1970 signaling that spending on big ticket items like cars and vacations will halt as households refrain from pulling equity from their homes.

An empty economic calendar will leave dollar price action at the mercy of risk flows today. Despite a bout of risk aversion due to violence in the Middle East the dollar didn’t benefit from the increased risk aversion which saw oil and gold shoot higher. The thin holiday trading could lead to increased volatility as institutional buyers have a greater impact on price action. Bargain hunting could drive equity markets higher today and the resulting risk appetite may weigh on the greenback. Additionally, as the dollar continues to trade more on fundamentals the weak holiday shopping season may lower growth expectations for 2009 and add to dollar selling.

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