Investing in the Foreign Exchange Market

To understand the efficient markets hypothesis in the context of foreign exchange trading, consider the options
open to an American bank (or firm) that temporarily has excess funds to be invested overnight

The bank could lend that money in the overnight bank money market, known as the federal funds market. The

simple net return on each dollar invested this way would be the overnight interest rate on dollar deposits. The bank has other

investment options, though. It could instead convert its money to a foreign currency(e.g., the deutsche mark), lend its

money in the overnight German money market (at the German interest rate) and then convert it back to dollars tomorrow

This return is the sum of the German overnight interest rate and the change in
the value of the DM

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