Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar

- US personal spending contracted for the fifth straight month in November as jobless claims held near 26-year highs
- US durable goods order fell less than expected, helped by an increase in defense spending and business investment
- US retail sales tumbled during December despite aggressive discounting, according to SpendingPulse

The US dollar has spent the past week consolidating within thin ranges, as low volumes did little to spark directional trade. This left the greenback down 1 percent against the euro and up roughly 1.5 percent versus the British pound and Japanese yen by Friday’s close. In the coming week, the US markets will be closed on January 1 for New Year’s Day, and low liquidity conditions could persist as scattered financial markets around the globe will also be closed on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, there will be a bit of event risk on hand, leaving potential open for volatility to pick up a bit.

On Tuesday at 9:00 ET, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the month of October is anticipated to fall by a record 17.8 percent from a year earlier, highlighting the extent of the collapse in the US housing sector. At 10:00 ET, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for the month of December is expected to edge up to 45.5 from 44.9. This would mark the second improvement in a row, but it’s necessary to keep these figures in perspective, as the record low of 38.8 going back to 1967 was just realized in October, down significantly from the index’s average of more than 100 throughout 2006 and 2007.

Indeed, the outlook for consumption remains bleak, especially as aggressive discounting by retailers was not able to prevent holiday spending from slumping 4 percent in December from a year earlier (excluding gasoline), according to SpendingPulse. On Wednesday, initial and continuing jobless claims are likely to hold near their highest levels since late-1982, boding ill for the January 9 release of US non-farm payrolls. Finally, on Friday, the Institute for Supply Management’s index of manufacturing conditions during December may fall to the lowest levels since 1982, while the record low of 29.4 reached in May 1980 looming close below.

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