Remedies

It is difficult to maintain true perspective in large
affairs. I have criticised the work of Paris, and have depicted
in sombre colours the condition and the prospects of Europe. This
is one aspect of the position and, I believe, a true one. But in
so complex a phenomenon the prognostics do not all point one way;
and we may make the error of expecting consequences to follow too
swiftly and too inevitably from what perhaps are not all the
relevant causes. The blackness of the prospect itself leads us to
doubt its accuracy; our imagination is dulled rather than
stimulated by too woeful a narration, and our minds rebound from
what is felt 'too bad to be true'. But before the reader allows
himself to be too much swayed by these natural reflections, and
before I lead him, as is the intention of this chapter, towards
and ameliorations remedies and the discovery of happier
tendencies, let him redress the balance of his thought by
recalling two contrasts -- England and Russia, of which the one
may encourage his optimism too much, but the other should remind
him that catastrophes can still happen, and that modern society
is not immune from the very greatest evils.

In the chapters of this book I have not generally had in mind
the situation or the problems of England. 'Europe' in my
narration must generally be interpreted to exclude the British
Isles. England is in a state of transition, and her economic
problems are serious. We may be on the eve of great changes in
her social and industrial structure. Some of us may welcome such
prospects and some of us deplore them. But they are of a
different kind altogether from those impending on Europe. I do
not perceive in England the slightest possibility of catastrophe
or any serious likelihood of a general upheaval of society. The
war has impoverished us, but not seriously -- I should judge that
the real wealth of the country in 1919 is at least equal to what
it was in 1900. Our balance of trade is adverse, but not so much
so that the readjustment of it need disorder our economic
life.(1*) The deficit in our budget is large, but not beyond what
firm and prudent statesmanship could bridge. The shortening of
the hours of labour may have somewhat diminished our
productivity. But it should not be too much to hope that this is
a feature of transition, and no one who is acquainted with the
British working man can doubt that, if it suits him, and if he is
in sympathy and reasonable contentment with the conditions of his
life, he can produce at least as much in a shorter working day as
he did in the longer hours which prevailed formerly. The most
serious problems for England have been brought to a head by the
war, but are in their origins more fundamental. The forces of the
nineteenth century have run their course and are exhausted. The
economic motives and ideals of that generation no longer satisfy
us: we must find a new way and must suffer again the malaise, and
finally the pangs, of a new industrial birth.
This is one
element. The other is that on which I have enlarged in chapter 2
-- the increase in the real cost of food and the diminishing
response of Nature to any further increase in the population of
the world, a tendency which must be especially injurious to the
greatest of all industrial countries and the most dependent on
imported supplies of food.

But these secular problems are such as no age is free from.
They are of an altogether different order from those which may
afflict the peoples of Central Europe. Those readers who, chiefly
mindful of the British conditions with which they are familiar,
are apt to indulge their optimism, and still more those whose
immediate environment is American, must cast their minds to
Russia, Turkey, Hungary, or Austria, where the most dreadful
material evils which men can suffer -- famine, cold, disease,
war, murder, and anarchy -- are an actual present experience, if
they are to apprehend the character of the misfortunes against
the further extension of which it must surely be our duty to seek
the remedy, if there is one.
What then is to be done? The tentative suggestions of this
chapter may appear to the reader inadequate. But the opportunity
was missed at Paris during the six months which followed the
armistice, and nothing we can do now can repair the mischief
wrought at that time. Great privation and great risks to society
have become unavoidable. All that is now open to us is to
redirect, so far as lies in our power, the fundamental economic
tendencies which underlie the events of the hour, so that they
promote the re-establishment of prosperity and order, instead of
leading us deeper into misfortune.

We must first escape from the atmosphere and the methods of
Paris. Those who controlled the conference may bow before the
gusts of popular opinion, but they will never lead us out of our
troubles. It is hardly to be supposed that the Council of Four
can retrace their steps, even if they wished to do so. The
replacement of the existing governments of Europe is, therefore,
an almost indispensable preliminary.

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